The incoming Biden administration seems more on target by putting the pandemic, economic recovery and climate change on the top of its political agenda. Expectations are high, not just in Europe or among the US' allies, but also in China, that there will be better global governance with the US once again assuming a leading role. Based on the way the wind is blowing in Beijing and Washington, the boat of cooperation should sail as early and as quickly as possible. It's a test of grave importance for both countries at this historical juncture, and we can only hope that wisdom prevails in both countries so they can avoid the dangers of unmet expectations.
The current US administration has made it clear with its desperate actions that it considers its "tough on China" policy to be its most prominent legacy, and it intends to tighten the screws further by sanctioning more Chinese companies and trying to drag more countries into the anti-China alliance it has been trying to form, to the extent that any future attempt to reverse its policy will be a political suicide.It is unfortunate that even now, the US administration cannot get its priorities right. Thankfully, the incoming administration seems more on target by putting the pandemic, economic recovery and climate change on the top of its political agenda. Even better, the United States and China could very much work together on these issues.China and the US have worked together to combat Ebola and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome. In fact, since the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in 2003, the two countries have worked closely on global public health issues such as chronic diseases, preventative medicine and infectious diseases. On top of that, before the current US administration stymied them, bilateral scientific activities, medical training, international exchanges and joint research were common between China and the US.The two countries also worked together to weather the storm of the global financial crisis. As recorded in former US president Barack Obama's memoir, China played a key role in helping the world economy recover by initiating its domestic stimulus program and participating in the coordinated efforts of the G20.And the two countries cooperated to ensure the realization of the Paris Agreement, and although the current administration withdrew the US from the deal, the US state and local governments as well as businesses are sticking to the plan, and China is fulfilling its obligations with an additional commitment to be carbon neutral by 2060.The trade war launched by the current US administration has failed, with the professional economic teams on both sides saving economic and trade ties, albeit tenuously, with their hard-won deal.Now that Joe Biden has established a capable COVID-19 advisory board, picked Janet Yellen to be his Treasury Secretary, and named John Kerry to be his special climate envoy, it looks like the US will have a professional and rational administration. Expectations are high, not just in Europe or among the US' allies, but also in China, that there will be better global governance with the US once again assuming a leading role.Based on the way the wind is blowing in Beijing and Washington, the boat of cooperation should sail as early and as quickly as possible. China wants a course correction with the US that emphasizes cooperation over competition. Restoring positive momentum in ties would be a win-win move that is badly needed to refill the trust deficit between the two sides. The incoming US administration may choose to pursue a China policy that can best be described as conditional engagement, keeping the current administration's pressure measures against China as bargaining chips while engaging China on global issues.So what could go wrong? Three things. First, the China hawks are here to stay and they are determined to block anything remotely like a détente. With 74 million votes under his belt, the US president might think he came out the 2020 election vindicated if not victorious. With the Senate still under Republican control, any move to cooperate with China will be obstructed and claimed to be "soft" or a "surrender" to the Chinese side.Second, a "wait for the other side to move first" mentality. If both sides wait for the other to show goodwill first, the chance for cooperation and reconciliation will be lost.Third, bogged down by non-substantive or non-essential issues due to the lack of high-level coordination. The devil is in the details and that is especially true in China-US relations. Over years, few US presidents and no Chinese president came into office with ill intentions against the other side, and normally the top leaders of both countries can sit down and reach agreements in principle on the predominant issues concerning the core interests of both. And yet, departmental or ministerial special interests and responsibility concerns often delay and interfere in the subsequent negotiations, wearing away good will, patience and ultimately the chance to improve bilateral relations.Given the current negative public opinion in each country toward the other, should the widely expected cooperation stall and the blame game restart, the window of opportunity will close. If China and the US do not find a way to patch up their differences, manage their disputes, they will be unable to work together to address the common challenges the world faces. It's a test of grave importance for both countries at this historical juncture, and we can only hope that wisdom prevails in both countries so they can avoid the dangers of unmet expectations.
(本文发表于 China Daily 2020年12月1日。)
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