人工智能对全球价值链分工位置的双重影响

《财经研究》 2022年48卷第10期 页码：34 - 48,93  online：2022年10月3日

人工智能对全球价值链分工位置的双重影响

The Dual Impact of Artificial Intelligence on GVC Position

作者（中）：周洺竹1 , 綦建红1,2 , 张志彤1

作者（英）：Zhou Mingzhu1, Qi Jianhong1,2, Zhang Zhitong1 

作者单位：1. 山东大学 经济学院，山东 济南 250100; 2. 山东大学 人工智能与经济研究中心，山东 济南 250100

摘要：文章采用IFR提供的工业机器人跨国跨行业安装数据，考察人工智能对全球价值链（GVC）分工位置的影响、作用机制及其溢出效应。研究发现：（1）人工智能整体上能够“独善其身”，促进所在国家、所在行业GVC分工位置的攀升，但是这种促进作用主要体现于技术接受度较高的国家、自动化高的行业、竞争激烈的行业和生产类GVC；（2）人工智能对GVC分工位置的提升作用不仅通过提升行业生产率和创造新劳动实现，还包括提高产品质量，但是质量效应的发挥因行业产品质量平均水准和波动程度而呈现出异质性；（3）人工智能也能够在一定程度上“兼济天下”，对其他国家、其他行业的GVC分工位置产生横向和前向溢出效应，但是后向溢出效应并不存在。文章拓展了人工智能在贸易领域的研究，有助于厘清人工智能为GVC攀升带来的机遇。

关键词：人工智能; GVC分工位置; 机器人; 溢出效应

Summary: In recent years, the global value chain (GVC) has become one of the most important organizational forms of international production. How to better improve GVC position has become the common direction of all countries in the world. The arrival of the intelligent era has brought a new historical opportunity for the rise of GVC position. As one of the most promising technologies in the new round of scientific and technological development, artificial intelligence (AI) not only creates a new mode for global production, but also continuously promotes the transformation from “traditional manufacturing” to “intelligent manufacturing”. Based on this, this paper uses WIOD database, UIBE GVC indicators database and IFR database, and takes robot, the implementation technology of AI in production, as an example to investigate the impact of robots on GVC position and its spillover effect. The results show that: Firstly, AI can improve GVC position. That is, there is a promotion effect of “make yourself better”. Secondly, different from existing studies, this paper finds that the promotion effect of AI on GVC position is mainly realized by improving industry productivity, creating new labor and improving product quality, although the quality effect is heterogeneous due to the average and fluctuation of product quality in various industries. Thirdly, AI can also “make the world better”, and produce horizontal and forward spillover effects of other countries and other industries by alleviating over-competition among the same industry and reducing the cost performance of intermediate products supplied by upstream industries. This paper expands the research of AI in the field of trade, and helps to catch the opportunities brought by the era of AI. Today, with domestic “internal circulation” to expand domestic demand and external “dual circulation” to develop in an orderly manner, it is conducive to fully grasping the new opportunities in the era of AI and geting rid of the dilemma of low-end locking. The contribution is mainly reflected in two aspects: Firstly, different from existing studies, this paper quantifies the role of product quality for the first time, and finds that the quality effect of AI is heterogeneous due to the average and fluctuation of product quality in various industries. To a certain extent, it makes up for the defects of existing studies that ignore product quality and underestimate the impact of productivity. Secondly, in terms of research perspective, this paper not only examines the impact of robots on GVC position in the country and the industry, that is, whether it can “make yourself better”, but also examines the horizontal and vertical spillover effects and mechanisms of robots on GVC position in other countries and other industries, that is, whether and why it can “make the world better”, which provides new evidence for a comprehensive understanding of the economic effect of robotics.

Key words: AI; GVC position; robots; spillover effect 

DOI：10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.20220113.202

收稿日期：2021-07-30

基金项目：国家社会科学基金重大招标项目（17ZDA040，18ZDA078）；国家社会科学基金一般项目（21BJY097）

全文：点击下方“阅读原文”查看全文