双语访谈|Tsinghua dean discusses international relations
Tsinghua dean discusses probability of a Korean Peninsula war, Sino-Indian and Sino-US relations
专访清华大学国际关系研究院院长阎学通
source:Global Time
by Doris Zhang and Hu Jinyang
Flags are pictured during the fifth round of NAFTA talks involving the United States, Mexico and Canada, in Mexico City, Mexico, November 19, 2017.
Edgard Garrido/Reuters
GT: Under the Trump administration, the US has withdrawn from a number of international and multilateral agreements. Do you think this means the US will go toward isolationism?
环球时报：在特朗普治下，美国退出不少国际组织及多边协议，这些是否意味着美国将走向“孤立主义”？
Yan: Trump and the pro-establishment camp are in serious opposition as for whether the US will continue to assume world leadership. The establishment believes that the US maintaining world leadership is the country’s biggest strategic interest; while Trump believes that as America's power is in decline, it cannot afford to hold the leadership, so America's first priority is tobuild up its own strength. In ranking the priority of national interests, Trump might be the first US President since the end of WWII to put economic interests prior to keeping the world leadership.
Trump's "American first" does not mean that the US will go into isolationism. Instead, he will pay more attention to bilateral diplomacy, although the newly published National Security Strategy(NSS) has maintained a balance between bilateral and multilateral diplomacies.The US has pulled back from some international organizations and agreements because it wants to replace the existing multilateral framework with a bilateral one.
阎学通：特朗普与建制派对于美国是否继续承担世界领导责任的看法严重对立。建制派认为，美国的世界领导地位是通过200多年努力获得的，是美国的首要战略利益。而特朗普认为美国衰落了，已经无力承担世界领导责任，首要任务是加强自身实力建设。在国家利益排序问题上，特朗普可能是1945年以来，第一个将美国的世界领导权置于经济利益之后的美国总统。
特朗普的“美国优先”不意味着美国走向孤立主义。尽管《国家安全战略报告》在双边与多边外交之间保持了平衡，但我仍认为特朗普对双边外交的重视程度会超过多边。美国之前退出一些国际组织和协议，就是想以双边形式取代原有多边架构的表现。
President Donald J. Trump holds a bilateral meeting with India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi alongside the ASEAN Summit in Manila, Philippines, November 13, 2017. Jonathan Ernst/Reuters
GT: The US just released the Indo-Pacific strategy in its NSS. Do you think this is the Trump administration’s new Asian strategy?
环球时报：美国不久前抛出“印太战略”的概念，这相当于特朗普政府的亚洲战略吗？
Yan:The NSS defines China as the US’ biggest strategic competitor, which accords with the principle that the rising state and the hegemonic state are in zero-sum relations and also fits the interpretation of the “superficial friendship theory.” However, the report did not use the concept of "Indo-Pacific strategy," but rather the "Indo-Pacific area." It's an economic concept instead of a security strategy. The US will be mainly engaged in economic strategic competition with China, which is different from Obama's emphasis on political leadership when he raised the "Pivot to Asia" strategy.
Trump's "free and open Indo-Pacific"mainly refers to trade and investment. As the economy of East Asia has surpassed that of Europe, the world center is also shifting here. So the US positions the focus of its global strategy to this area. And Trump especially puts his strategic emphasis on North east Asia, which contains China and Japan, the world’s second and third biggest economies, respectively. He does not pay asmuch attention to South east Asia as Obama did. This also demonstrates he regards economic interests as a primary national interest.
阎学通：美国的《国家安全战略报告》将中国定位为第一位的战略“竞争者”，这符合崛起国与霸权国是零和关系的原理，也符合“假朋友理论”的解释。这个报告没有使用“印太战略”的概念，而是“印太地区”。“印太地区”是个经济战略概念，不是安全战略概念，美国主要是与中国进行经济方面的战略竞争，这与奥巴马“重返亚太”战略注重政治领导权有所不同。
特朗普的“自由开放的印太地区”，主要是指贸易和投资。东亚的经济规模已经超过欧洲，世界中心正从欧洲向东亚转移，因此美国的全球战略重点将置于东亚。在东亚，特朗普的战略重点是东北亚，他将不像奧巴马那么重视东南亚。这也说明其已经经济利益置于国家利益之首。
A Vietnamese fishing boat goes past the USS Chung-Hoon at a port in Danang city, July 15, 2011.
(Nguyen Huy Kham/Reuters)
GT:Compared with 2016, there have been few conflicts in the South China Sea between China and other countries in 2017. What do you think caused that situation?
环球时报：相比2016年，2017年南海似乎平静了很多，您认为是何种原因导致这一结果？
Yan: Trump's security strategy in East Asia also focuses on North east Asia. As he takes little count of military alliances with South east Asian countries, they have to re-consider their security strategies.
In recent years, some ASEAN countries havea dopted a dual-track strategy, which relies on China economically and the US for security issues. However, facing a less reliable Trump administration, they have begun to adjust their policies. While still relying on China economically,they try to keep a equal distance between China and the US when it comes to security issues. For example, when Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong visited China in September, the two sides expressed their intention to conductjoint military exercises in the future.
I think the US navy will have more patrols in the South China Sea in 2018. But considering that the two countries have gained a more mature model of dealing with each other's behavior in the past few years, I believe there is a very low possibility that the two sides will have any direct frictions in the region.
阎学通：特朗普的东亚安全战略重点在东北亚，这不同于奥巴马的安全重点在东南亚。由于特朗普不重视与东南亚国家的军事同盟关系，因此东南亚国家不得不重新考虑他们的安全战略。
近些年来，一些东盟国家采取经济靠中国、安全靠美国的双轨战略。面对特朗普政府不那么可靠的现象，他们开始调整政策。在“经济靠中国”不变的情况下，安全上采取了在中美之间保持等距离的政策。新加坡总理李显龙2017年9月访华时，双方表达了未来进行联合军事演习的意向就是个例子。
我认为，2018年美国海军将继续在南海巡航。介于两国业已形成一套相对成熟的互动模式，我认为中美在南海地区发生直接冲突的可能性极低。
Xi Jinping Meets with Prime Minister Narendra Modi
GT: Whatis your observation of India's future strategy toward China?
环球时报：您对印度未来的对华战略有什么观察，它会给中国带来什么？
Yan:The structural contradictions between China and India in South Asia are becoming increasingly serious. India considers itself the dominant power in the region, and takes China’s Belt and Road projects in the region as a strategic containment of India.
The Doklam standoff is just one of the measures India used to stop China’s expansion in South Asia. In the future, India will continue to confront China via the issues where India is in a more advantageous position. Although the two countries have held high-level talks on the border issue, it won’t fundamentally change India's confrontational China policy.
The biggest obstacle in improving Sino-Indian relations is that India’s psychologically reluctant to recognize China is stronger than itself. In this aspect, India is even worse than Japan.
阎学通：中印在南亚地区的结构性矛盾日益严重。印度将南亚视为其势力范围，反对“一带一路”倡议，认为中国在南亚的项目都是从战略上遏制印度的。
洞朗事件不过是印度阻止我国在南亚拓展的一个小的具体措施，今后印度还会不断地选择自己具有相对优势的议题与我国对抗。虽然针对边界问题中印举行了高级别对话，但并不能从根本上改变印度以对抗为主的对华政策。
中印关系改善的最大困难是印度的心理问题。印度不愿中国比其强大，我们无法改变他们的这种心理。我以为，印度的这个政治心理问题比日本都严重。
Vehicles carry missiles during a military parade in Pyongyang. Sue-Lin Wong/Reuters
GT:Do you think the Korean Peninsula is at the highest risk of going through a war in 2018?
环球时报：朝鲜半岛会是2018年战争风险最大的地方吗？
Yan: I don't think there is any possibility of war on the Korean Peninsulain 2018. There is only one country that could wage war in the region — that is the US. But the US would only start a war if its strategic gains outweigh the costs. However, a war led by the US means that the North Korean regime wil llose its chance of survival, which might force the country to the corner to take full revenge on Seoul. The significant price of blood is unaffordable not only to South Korea, but also to the US. As a result, I don’t think the US willbe determined to start a war.
阎学通：我不认为2018年朝鲜半岛有发生战争的可能性。目前，有可能发动战争的只有美国一家，而美国发动战争的基本出发点是进行战争的战略收益大于成本。然而，一旦美国发动战争，就意味着朝鲜政府失去生存机会，因此可能“鱼死网破”，对首尔进行全面报复。这将让韩国付出巨大的平民生命代价，这不仅是韩国政府承受不了的，美国政府也无法承受。因此，我认为美国下不了发动战争的决心。。
Leaders of the G20, EU, UN, and IMF at the G20 leaders summit in Hamburg, Germany July 7, 2017.
Ludovic Marin/Reuters
GT: Chinais playing a more important role in global governance, and is willing to offer the"Chinese solution," what opportunities has the current international situation brought to China?
环球时报：中国在全球治理中的作用越来越大，中国也乐意提供“中国方案”，当下的国际格局和形势给新时代的中国带来了哪些机遇？
Yan:The biggest opportunity for China is the Trump administration’s reluctance to assume international leadership and the uncertainty of its foreign policy. It’s yet to be seen whether the US will restore its former support to its allies, based on the NSS. The US’ weakened support to its allies is beneficial to the expansion of China’s overseas interests.
Meanwhile, we need to prevent aggressive policy. Although China is the world’s second biggest power, we have a big gap with the US. If the US is not capable to lead global governance, China's strength will not be more fulfilling. China is qualified to provide regional governance schemes, but not in the global scope.
阎学通：中国当前面临的最大机遇，是特朗普政府不愿承担国际领导责任及其对外政策的不确定性。美国虽然出台了《国家安全战略报告》，特朗普是否愿意按照报告制定政策还不一定，美国是否恢复以往那种对盟友的支持还有待观察。美国弱化对盟友的支持，这对拓展我国海外利益是有利的。
与此同时，我们需要防止冒进政策。我国是世界第二大国，但与美国的实力差距还很大。如果美国没有领导全球治理的实力，我国更满足不了这个责任。我国实力能支撑为东亚提供地区治理方案，但尚无力支撑全球治理的方案。
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (R) and New Zealand's Foreign Minister Murray McCully attend a news conference after talks in Beijing, China, on October 18, 2016. Thomas Peter/Reuters
GT:Recently various countries, including Australia, Germany, the US and Canada,all accused China of “political penetrations,” do you think this is a “Chinathreat” theory V2.0?
环球时报：最近，澳大利亚、新西兰、美国、加拿大等国都有声音指控“中国渗透”，这是“中国威胁论”2.0版吗？
Yan: The "China threat” theory was dated back to the early 1990s. Firstly, it was China’s cheap goods, then its military policies, and later its financial competition. Now, the concern is mainly with China’s influence of ideas and values. With the rise of China's power and the expansion of its global influence, China's impact on culture, values and ideology will also go up. But some people in Western developed countries are reluctant to see this trend and try to prevent China's ideological influence from rising. Actually this is a normal phenomenon. The rise of great powers inevitably comes with strategic competition and conflicts of interest. And the conflicts are not confined to the physical area, but will also spread to the realm of thought and culture.
Some scholars have predicted that there will be anti-China incidents in more countries in 2018. I hold the same view.
阎学通：“中国威胁论”始于上世纪90年代初。当时是担心中国低价商品的竞争，后来担心中国的军事政策，再后来担心中国的金融竞争，这次是担心思想和价值观上的影响。随着中国实力地位的上升及中国国际影响力的扩大，中国在文化、价值观、思想观念上的影响力必然上升。但西方发达国家的一些人不愿意看到这一现象，力图阻止。这是很正常的现象。大国崛起不可避免地伴随着战略竞争和利益冲突，这种冲突不会局限于物质领域。
已经有学者预测2018年可能会在更多国家发生反华事件，我持相同看法。
(end)
Further reading
Yan Xuetong:Current Norms are no longer suitbale
For China Politics is Architectonic
Hawk-Talk in Island Disputes: Japan and Korea
International Crises and China's Rise
国关新青年
NEW THOUGHT NEW VISION
id：IRnewyouth