国外权威期刊目录 AER·《美国经济评论》（总第198期）
期刊介绍
American Economic Review 由美国经济学会主办，1911年创立，该刊目的文章题目范围广泛，是美国经济学界最古老、最受人尊敬的经济专业学术期刊之一。在经济学领域，被视为最具有学术声望的重要期刊之一，位列经济学五大刊之首，堪称经济学皇冠上的明珠。其文献代表着对经济学研究以及对经济现象最影响深远的认识，而这些文献的作者也大多是诺贝尔经济学奖得主。
本期期卷：Volume 112；Issue 6
发表日期：June 2022
来源：https://www.aeaweb.org/issues/680
或点击文末“阅读原文”
2022年6月刊合集（卷112）
目 录
（1）
Design-Based Research in Empirical Microeconomics
基于设计的实证微观经济学研究
David Card
（2）
The Welfare Effects of Peer Entry: The Case of Airbnb and the Accommodation Industry
同行进入的福利效应：Airbnb和住宿业的案例
Chiara Farronato; Andrey Fradkin
（3）
Aggregating Distributional Treatment Effects: A Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of the Microcredit Literature
聚合分布处理效果：小额信贷文献的贝叶斯层次分析
Rachael Meager
（4）
Offshore Profit Shifting and Aggregate Measurement: Balance of Payments, Foreign Investment, Productivity and the Labor Share
离岸利润转移和综合衡量：国际收支、外国投资、生产力和劳动份额
Fatih Guvenen; Raymond J. Mataloni Jr.; Dylan G. Rassier; Kim J. Ruhl
（5）
Migrants and Firms: Evidence from China
移民和企业：来自中国的证据
Clement Imbert; Marlon Seror; Yifan Zhang; Yanos Zylberberg
（6）
Concentration Thresholds for Horizontal Mergers
横向并购的集中度门槛
Volker Nocke; Michael D. Whinston
（7）
Screening Inattentive Buyers
筛选不专心的买家
Jeffrey Mensch
（8）
Spreading Gangs:
Exporting US Criminal Capital to El Salvador
散布帮派：将美国犯罪资本输出到萨尔瓦多
Maria Micaela Sviatschi
（9）
Efficient Matching in the School Choice Problem
择校问题中的有效匹配
Philip J. Reny
（10）
Bargaining with Mechanisms与机制讨价还价
Marcin Pęski
1
Design-Based
Research in Empirical Microeconomics
基于设计的实证微观经济学研究
David Card
Abstract
I briefly review the emergence of "design-based" research methods in labor economics in the 1980s and early 1990s. These methods were seen as a partial solution to the problems of credible inference identified by Ashenfelter (1974), Leamer (1978), Hendry (1980), and others. Designed-based studies typically use a simplified one-equation model of the outcome of interest—in contrast to model-based studies that specify a data generating process for all factors determining the outcome. I discuss some of the strengths and weaknesses of the design-based approach and the value of such research in the field.
摘 要
我简要回顾了 1980 年代和 1990 年代初期劳动经济学中“基于设计”的研究方法的出现。这些方法被视为对 Ashenfelter (1974)、Leamer (1978)、Hendry (1980) 等人确定的可信推理问题的部分解决方案。基于设计的研究通常使用感兴趣结果的简化单方程模型，而基于模型的研究则为决定结果的所有因素指定数据生成过程。我讨论了基于设计的方法的一些优点和缺点，以及这种研究在该领域的价值。
2
The Welfare Effects
of Peer Entry: The Case of Airbnb and the Accommodation Industry
同行进入的福利效应：Airbnb和住宿业的案例
Chiara Farronato; Andrey Fradkin
Abstract
We study the welfare effects of enabling peer supply through Airbnb in the accommodation industry. We present a model of competition between flexible and dedicated sellers (peer hosts and hotels) who provide differentiated products. We estimate this model using data from major US cities and quantify the welfare effects of Airbnb on travelers, hosts, and hotels. The welfare gains are concentrated in specific locations (New York) and times (New Year's Eve) when hotel capacity is constrained. This occurs because peer hosts are responsive to market conditions, expand supply as hotels fill up, and keep hotel prices down as a result.
我们研究了通过 Airbnb 在住宿行业实现同行供应的福利效应。我们展示了提供差异化产品的灵活且专注的卖家（同行主机和酒店）之间的竞争模型。我们使用来自美国主要城市的数据估计该模型，并量化 Airbnb 对旅行者、房东和酒店的福利影响。福利收益集中在酒店容量受限的特定地点（纽约）和时间（除夕）。发生这种情况是因为同行主机对市场状况做出反应，随着酒店客满而扩大供应，并因此降低酒店价格。
3
Aggregating
Distributional Treatment Effects: A Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of the
Microcredit Literature
聚合分布处理效果：小额信贷文献的贝叶斯层次分析
Rachael Meager
Abstract
Expanding credit access in developing contexts could help some households while harming others. Microcredit studies show different effects at different quantiles of household profit, including some negative effects; yet these findings also differ across studies. I develop new Bayesian hierarchical models to aggregate the evidence on these distributional effects for mixture-type outcomes such as household profit. Applying them to microcredit, I find a precise zero effect from the fifth to seventy-fifth quantiles, and uncertain yet large effects on the upper tails, particularly for households with business experience. These quantile estimates are more reliable than averages because the data are fat tailed.
摘 要
在发展中环境中扩大信贷准入可以帮助一些家庭，同时损害其他家庭。小额信贷研究显示了不同家庭利润分位数的不同影响，包括一些负面影响；然而，这些发现也因研究而异。我开发了新的贝叶斯层次模型来汇总关于这些分配效应对家庭利润等混合型结果的证据。将它们应用于小额信贷，我发现从第 5 到第 75 分位数的精确零效应，以及对上尾的不确定但巨大的影响，特别是对于有商业经验的家庭。这些分位数估计比平均值更可靠，因为数据是肥尾的。
4
Offshore Profit
Shifting and Aggregate Measurement: Balance of Payments, Foreign Investment,
Productivity and the Labor Share
离岸利润转移和综合衡量：国际收支、外国投资、生产力和劳动份额
Fatih Guvenen; Raymond J. Mataloni Jr.; Dylan G. Rassier; Kim J. Ruhl
Abstract
We show how offshore profit shifting by US multinational enterprises affects several key measures of the US economy. Profits shifted out of the United States grew rapidly from the mid-1990s to 2010 and have since waned. From 1982–2016, on average, 38 percent of income attributed to US direct investment abroad is reattributable to the United States. We find that adjusting for profit shifting shrinks the trade deficit, decreases the return on US foreign direct investment abroad, boosts productivity growth rates in the late 1990s and early 2000s, and lowers labor's share of income.
摘 要
我们展示了美国跨国企业的离岸利润转移如何影响美国经济的几个关键指标。从 1990 年代中期到 2010 年，转移出美国的利润迅速增长，此后逐渐下降。从 1982 年到 2016 年，平均 38% 的收入归因于美国海外直接投资可再归因于美国。我们发现，调整利润转移可以缩小贸易逆差，降低美国对外直接投资的回报，提高 1990 年代末和 2000 年代初的生产率增长率，并降低劳动力在收入中的份额。
5
Migrants and Firms: Evidence from China
移民和企业：来自中国的证据
Clement Imbert; Marlon Seror; Yifan Zhang; Yanos Zylberberg
Abstract
How does rural-urban migration shape urban production in developing countries? We use longitudinal data on Chinese manufacturing firms between 2000 and 2006, and exploit exogenous variation in rural-urban migration induced by agricultural income shocks for identification. We find that, when immigration increases, manufacturing production becomes more labor intensive and productivity declines. We investigate the reorganization of production using patent applications and product information. We show that rural-urban migration induces both labor-oriented technological change and the adoption of labor intensive product varieties.
摘 要
农村向城市的迁移如何影响发展中国家的城市生产？我们使用 2000 年至 2006 年间中国制造企业的纵向数据，并利用农业收入冲击引起的城乡迁移的外生变化进行识别。我们发现，当移民增加时，制造业生产变得更加劳动密集，生产力下降。我们利用专利申请和产品信息调查生产重组。我们表明，农村向城市迁移既引发了以劳动力为导向的技术变革，也引发了对劳动密集型产品品种的采用。
6
Concentration
Thresholds for Horizontal Mergers
横向并购的集中度门槛
Volker Nocke; Michael D. Whinston
Abstract
Concentration-based thresholds for horizontal mergers, such as those in the US Horizontal Merger Guidelines, play a central role in merger analysis but their basis remains unclear. We show that there is both a theoretical and an empirical basis for focusing solely on the change in concentration, and ignoring its level, in screening mergers for whether their unilateral price effects will harm consumers. We also argue that current threshold levels likely are too lax, unless one expects efficiency gains of 5 percent or greater, or other factors such as entry and product repositioning to significantly constrain the exercise of market power postmerger.
摘 要
横向合并的基于集中度的阈值，例如美国横向合并指南中的阈值，在合并分析中发挥着核心作用，但其基础仍不清楚。我们表明，仅关注集中度的变化而忽略其水平，以筛选合并是否单方面的价格影响会损害消费者，既有理论基础，也有经验基础。我们还认为，目前的门槛水平可能过于宽松，除非人们预计效率提高 5% 或更高，或者其他因素（例如进入和产品重新定位）会显着限制合并后市场力量的行使。
7
Screening
Inattentive Buyers
筛选不专心的买家
Jeffrey Mensch
Abstract
Information plays a crucial role in mechanism design problems. A potential complication is that buyers may be inattentive, and so their information may endogenously and flexibly depend on the offered mechanism. I show that it is without loss of generality to consider contour mechanisms, which comprise triplets of allocation probabilities, prices, and beliefs, and are uniquely determined by a single such point. The mechanism design problem then reduces to Bayesian persuasion along the optimal contour. This reduction has significant implications for both the implementation of the optimal mechanism and the revenues that can be achieved.
摘 要
信息在机制设计问题中起着至关重要的作用。一个潜在的并发症是买家可能不专心，因此他们的信息可能内生且灵活地依赖于所提供的机制。我表明，考虑轮廓机制是不失一般性的，它包括分配概率、价格和信念的三元组，并且由单个这样的点唯一确定。机制设计问题然后沿着最优轮廓简化为贝叶斯说服。这种减少对优化机制的实施和可以实现的收入都有重大影响。
8
Spreading Gangs:
Exporting US Criminal Capital to El Salvador
散布帮派：将美国犯罪资本输出到萨尔瓦多
Maria Micaela Sviatschi
Abstract
This paper shows how deportation policies can backfire by disseminating not only ideas between countries but also criminal networks, spreading gangs, in this case, across El Salvador, and spurring migration back to the United States. In 1996, the US Illegal Immigration Responsibility Act increased the number of criminal deportations. In particular, the members of large Salvadoran gangs developed in Los Angeles were sent back to El Salvador. Using variation in criminal deportations over time and across cohorts, combined with geographical variation in US gangs' location, I find that these deportations led to an increase in homicide rates and gang activity, as well as an increase in gang recruitment and migration of children.
摘 要
本文展示了驱逐政策如何适得其反，不仅在国家之间传播思想，还传播犯罪网络，在萨尔瓦多传播帮派，并刺激移民返回美国。 1996年，美国的非法移民责任法案增加了刑事驱逐的数量。特别是，在洛杉矶发展起来的大型萨尔瓦多帮派成员被送回萨尔瓦多。使用随时间推移和跨群体犯罪驱逐的变化，结合美国帮派位置的地理差异，我发现这些驱逐导致凶杀率和帮派活动的增加，以及帮派招募和儿童迁移的增加。
9
Efficient Matching
in the School Choice Problem
择校问题中的有效匹配
Philip J. Reny
Abstract
Stable matchings in school choice needn't be Pareto efficient and can leave thousands of students worse off than necessary. Call a matching μ priority-neutral if no matching can make any student whose priority is violated by μ better off without violating the priority of some student who is made worse off. Call a matching priority-efficient if it is priority-neutral and Pareto efficient. We show that there is a unique priority-efficient matching and that it dominates every priority-neutral matching and every stable matching. Moreover, truth-telling is a maxmin optimal strategy for every student in the mechanism that selects the priority-efficient matching.
摘 要
校选择中的稳定匹配不一定是帕累托有效的，并且可能会使成千上万的学生比必要的情况更糟。如果没有匹配可以使任何其优先级被 μ 违反的学生变得更好，而不会违反某些学生的优先级，则称匹配 μ 优先级中立。如果匹配优先级中性且帕累托有效，则称为匹配优先级有效。我们证明了存在一个独特的优先级有效匹配，并且它支配了每个优先级中性匹配和每个稳定匹配。此外，在选择优先有效匹配的机制中，说真话是每个学生的最大最小最优策略。
10
Bargaining with
Mechanisms
与机制讨价还价
Marcin Pęski
Abstract
Two players bargain over a single indivisible good and a transfer, with one-sided incomplete information about preferences. Both players can offer arbitrary mechanisms to determine the allocation. We show that there is a unique perfect Bayesian equilibrium outcome. In the equilibrium, one of the players proposes a menu that is optimal for the uninformed player among all menus, such that each type of the informed player receives at least her payoff under complete information. The optimal menu can be implemented with at most three allocations. Under a natural assumption on the uninformed player's beliefs, the optimal menu coincides with the Myerson's neutral solution to the bargaining problem in this environment.
摘 要
两个玩家就一个不可分割的商品和一个转移进行讨价还价，关于偏好的信息不完整。双方都可以提供任意机制来确定分配。我们证明了存在一个独特的完美贝叶斯均衡结果。在均衡中，其中一个玩家在所有菜单中提出了一个对不知情玩家来说是最优的菜单，这样每一种知情玩家都至少在完整信息下获得了她的收益。最优菜单最多可以通过三个分配来实现。在不知情玩家的信念的自然假设下，最优菜单与迈尔森在这种环境下讨价还价问题的中立解决方案相吻合。
编辑：孙杜霞
审核：李文清
资料来源于期刊网址，仅供学术交流使用，不得用于商业用途！来源：
https://www.aeaweb.org/issues/680
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