国外权威期刊目录JDE·发展经济学（总第199期）

期刊介绍

JDE发表与经济发展各个方面有关的原创研究论文——从眼前的政策问题到不发达的结构性问题。重点是定量或分析工作需为新颖和相关的。期刊被SSCI收录，影响因子为3.875。

本期期卷：Volume 155

发表日期：March 2022

来源：

或点击文末“阅读原文”

2022年3月刊合集（卷155）

目     录

（1）

轻触有多轻：基于培训的短期干预对布基纳法索家禽生产的影响

Jessica Leight, Josué Awonon, Abdoulaye Pedehombga, Rasmané Ganaba, Aulo Gelli

关键词：培训；牲畜生产；撒哈拉以南非洲地区；随机对照试验

（2）

信息和融资限制对技术采用的共同影响：来自坦桑尼亚农村地区的实地实验的证据

Aurélie P. Harou, Malgosia Madajewicz, Hope Michelson, Cheryl A. Palm, ... Ray Weil

关键词：信息；流动性；撒哈拉以南非洲；土壤质量；化肥；农业

（3）

浅碟市场中的大鱼：与中间商竞争以增加亚马逊的市场准入

Viva Ona Bartkus, Wyatt Brooks, Joseph P. Kaboski, Carolyn Pelnik

关键词：贫困陷阱；垄断；集体投资；农村发展

（4）

小公司与大流行：来自拉丁美洲的证据

Maria Elena Guerrero-Amezaga, John Eric Humphries, Christopher A. Neilson, Naomi Shimberg, Gabriel Ulyssea

关键词： COVID-19；小型企业；拉丁美洲

（5）

人口与健康调查人体测量样本中的内生包容性：对研究家庭身高的影响

Dean Spears, Diane Coffey, Jere R. Behrman

关键词：人口与健康调查；出生顺序；生育率；生育能力；身高；印度；选择识别

（6）

Land market distortions and aggregate agricultural productivity: Evidence from Guatemala

土地市场扭曲和农业总生产力：来自危地马拉的证据

Braulio Britos, Manuel A. Hernandez, Miguel Robles, Danilo R. Trupkin

关键词：土地市场扭曲；产出低效；农业生产力；危地马拉

（7）

Productivity, non-compliance and the minimum wage

生产力、违规和最低工资

Eliane Badaoui, Frank Walsh

关键词：最低工资；生产力；违规；非正规部门；公司

（8）

Hot Days, the ability to Work and climate resilience: Evidence from a representative sample of 42,152 Indian households

炎热的日子、工作能力和气候适应力：来自 42,152 个印度家庭的代表性样本的证据

Anthony Heyes, Soodeh Saberian

关键词：温度；有效的劳动力供应；气候影响；气候适应力；缓解

（9）

Unpacking a multi-faceted program to build sustainable income for the very poor

展开一个多方面的计划，为非常贫困的人建立可持续的收入

Abhijit Banerjee, Dean Karlan, Robert Osei, Hannah Trachtman, Christopher Udry

关键词：扶贫；资本回报

（10）

The role of food preferences in determining diet quality for Tanzanian consumers

食物偏好在决定坦桑尼亚消费者饮食质量中的作用

Ellen McCullough, Chen Zhen, Soye Shin, Meichen Lu, Joanne Arsenault

关键词：需求系统估计；膳食质量；微量营养素和常量营养素摄入；膳食能量；消费者偏好；撒哈拉以南非洲；坦桑尼亚

（11）

Social protection amidst social upheaval: Examining the impact of a multi-faceted program for ultra-poor households in Yemen

社会动荡中的社会保护：研究多方面计划对也门超贫困家庭的影响

Lasse Brune, Dean Karlan, Sikandra Kurdi, Christopher Udry

关键词：冲突；社会保护；贫困；转移计划

（12）

The impact of cash transfers on Syrian refugees in Lebanon: Evidence from a multidimensional regression discontinuity design

现金转移对黎巴嫩叙利亚难民的影响：来自多维断点回归设计的证据

Nisreen Salti, Jad Chaaban, Wael Moussa, Alexandra Irani, ... Hala Ghattas

关键词：现金转移；影响评估；断点回归；难民

（13）

Trans-boundary air pollution spillovers: Physical transport and economic costs by distance

跨界空气污染溢出效应：按距离划分的物理运输和经济成本

Shihe Fu, V. Brian Viard, Peng Zhang

关键词：空气污染；溢出效应；环境成本和收益；混合两阶段最小二乘法；区域协调

（14）

难民何时返回家园？来自叙利亚马什雷克流离失所的证据

Lori Beaman, Harun Onder, Stefanie Onder

关键词：回迁；被迫流离失所；难民

（15）

恐怖主义会使人们悲观吗？来自自然实验的证据

Shiqi Guo, Jiafu An

关键词：恐怖袭击；悲观主义；低伤亡；非洲

（16）

进口竞争与垂直整合：来自印度的证据

Joel Stiebale, Dev Vencappa

关键词：贸易自由化；竞争；纵向一体化；加价；边际成本

（17）

非洲农村地区的难民流入、剩余农业劳动力和作物市场化

Shunsuke Tsuda

关键词：难民；东道经济体；农户模式；市场交易成本；粮食援助；撒哈拉以南非洲

（18）

限制访问：如何使用互联网促进阅读和学习

Laura Derksen, Catherine Michaud-Leclerc, Pedro C.L. Souza

关键词：互联网；信息；教育；发展；阅读；中学

（19）

土地改革的赢家和输家：来自丹麦土地不平等的证据1682-1895

Nina Boberg-Fazlić, Markus Lampe, Pablo Martinelli Lasheras, Paul Sharp

关键词：土地改革；丹麦；土地不平等

（20）

财政机会和妇女在家庭决策中的作用：来自印度国家农村生计项目的经验证据

Anjini Kochar, Closepet Nagabhushana, Ritwik Sarkar, Rohan Shah, Geeta Singh

关键词：妇女决策；自助团体；贷款规模

（21）

虚拟能取代面对面的辅导吗？教师专业发展和学生学习的实验证据

Jacobus Cilliers, Brahm Fleisch, Janeli Kotze, Nompumelelo Mohohlwane, ... Tsegofatso Thulare

关键词：教育；南非；发展；辅导；培训；学生学习

1

How light is too light touch: The effect of a short training-based intervention on household poultry production in Burkina Faso

轻触有多轻：基于培训的短期干预对布基纳法索家禽生产的影响

Jessica Leight, Josué Awonon, Abdoulaye Pedehombga, Rasmané Ganaba, Aulo Gelli

Abstract 

This paper reports on the effects of a training-based intervention seeking to increase household engagement in poultry production in Burkina Faso, analyzing data from a large-scale cluster randomized trial in which 1798 households in 60 communes were observed over a period of three years. The intervention SELEVER — entailing a short series of trainings for households as well as capacity building for local animal health and credit services — had little effect on household poultry production and no effect on profits. There is some evidence of an increase in the utilization of poultry inputs and an associated reduction in poultry mortality, primarily for larger poultry producers; however, there is no evidence of any treatment effects for the smallest producers.

摘 要

本文报告了基于培训的干预措施寻求增加布基纳法索家庭参与家禽生产的效果，分析了一项大规模集群随机试验的数据，该试验在三年内观察了60个乡镇的1798户家庭。SELEVER干预措施包括为家庭提供一系列简短的培训，以及当地动物卫生和信贷服务的能力建设，对家庭家禽生产影响不大，对利润也没有影响。有证据表明，家禽投入物的利用率有所提高，家禽死亡率也相应降低，主要是大型家禽生产者。然而，没有证据表明对最小的生产者有任何治疗效果。

2

The joint effects of information and financing constraints on technology adoption: Evidence from a field experiment in rural Tanzania

信息和融资限制对技术采用的共同影响：来自坦桑尼亚农村地区的实地实验的证据

Aurélie P. Harou, Malgosia Madajewicz, Hope Michelson, Cheryl A. Palm, ... Ray Weil

Abstract

Low investment in profitable technologies contributes to persistent poverty. Many farmers in developing countries invest too little in fertilizer despite evidence that fertilizer is profitable. This field experiment investigates a two-part explanation: (1) farmers are reluctant to invest without farm-specific evidence of profitability, possibly because of heterogeneous returns, and (2) information is not sufficient to increase investment because of financing constraints. Farmers in one arm of the experiment receive fertilizer recommendations based on tests of their soils, others receive recommendations paired with an input subsidy, and others receive only the input subsidy. Only farmers who receive recommendations and the subsidy increase fertilizer application and yields relative to the control group. The financing constraint may explain limited response to heterogeneous fertilizer recommendations. The approximate net benefit of increased yields, accounting for the full cost of inputs and soil tests, is equivalent to average wages for seven days of work.

摘 要

对有利可图的技术投资低，助长了持续的贫困。发展中国家的许多农民在化肥方面的投资太少，尽管有证据表明化肥是有利可图的。该田间实验调查了两部分的解释：（1）农民不愿意在没有农场特定盈利证据的情况下进行投资，可能是因为异质性回报，以及（2）由于融资限制，信息不足以增加投资。实验的一个部门的农民根据对其土壤的测试获得肥料建议，其他人收到与投入补贴相结合的建议，而其他人则只获得投入补贴。只有获得建议和补贴的农民才能增加相对于对照组的施肥和产量。资金限制可能是对非均质肥料建议反应有限的原因。增加产量的近似净收益，占投入和土壤测试的全部成本，相当于七天工作的平均工资。

3

Big fish in thin markets: Competing with the middlemen to increase market access in the Amazon

浅碟市场中的大鱼：与中间商竞争以增加亚马逊的市场准入

Viva Ona Bartkus, Wyatt Brooks, Joseph P. Kaboski, Carolyn Pelnik

Abstract

     Middlemen are ubiquitous in supply chains. In developing countries they help bring products from remote communities to end markets but may exert strong market power. We study a cooperative intervention which organizes together poor fishing communities in the Amazon — one of the poorest and most remote regions of the world — to purchase large boats in order to partially bypass middlemen and deliver their fish directly to market. We find that the intervention increases income by 27%, largely through an increase in price received, and also increases consumption. Moreover, the intervention is highly cost effective with the projected stream of income gains easily covering the cost of the investment. Finally, we formalize a model in which the market power of middlemen itself can create a poverty trap, which can be eliminated with cooperative investment.

摘 要

4

Small firms and the pandemic: Evidence from Latin America

小公司与大流行：来自拉丁美洲的证据

Maria Elena Guerrero-Amezaga, John Eric Humphries, Christopher A. Neilson, Naomi Shimberg, Gabriel Ulyssea

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on small businesses between March and November 2020 using new survey data on 35,000 small businesses in eight Latin American countries. We document that the pandemic had large negative impacts on employment and beliefs regarding the future, which in turn predict meaningful economic outcomes in the medium-term. Despite the unprecedented amount of aid, policies had limited impact for small and informal firms. These firms were less aware of programs, applied less, and received less assistance. This may have lasting consequences, as businesses that received aid reported better outcomes and expectations about the future.

摘 要

5

Endogenous inclusion in the Demographic and Health Survey anthropometric sample: Implications for studying height within households

人口与健康调查人体测量样本中的内生包容性：对研究家庭身高的影响

Dean Spears, Diane Coffey, Jere R. Behrman

Abstract

Development economists study both anthropometry and intra-household allocation. In these literatures, the Demographic and Household Surveys (DHS) are essential. The DHS censors its anthropometric sample by age: only children under five are measured. We document several econometric consequences, especially for estimating birth-order effects. Child birth order and mothers’ fertility are highly correlated in the age-censored anthropometric subsample. Moreover, family structures and age patterns that permit within-family comparisons of siblings’ anthropometry are unrepresentative. So strategies that could separate birth order and fertility in other data cannot here. We show that stratification by mother’s fertility is important. We illustrate this by comparing India and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Children in India born to higher-fertility mothers are shorter, on average, than children of lower-fertility mothers. Yet, later-born children in India are taller, adjusted for age, than earlier-born children of the same sibsize. In SSA, neither of these associations is large.

摘 要

6

Land market distortions and aggregate agricultural productivity: Evidence from Guatemala

土地市场扭曲和农业总生产力：来自危地马拉的证据

Braulio Britos, Manuel A. Hernandez, Miguel Robles, Danilo R. Trupkin

Abstract

Farm size and land allocation are important factors in explaining lagging agricultural productivity in developing countries. This paper examines the effect of land market imperfections on land allocation across farmers and aggregate agricultural productivity. We develop a theoretical framework to model the optimal size distribution of farms and assess to what extent market imperfections can explain non-optimal land allocation and output inefficiency. We measure these distortions for the case of Guatemala using agricultural census microdata. We find that due to land market imperfections aggregate output is 19% below its efficient level for both maize and beans and 31% below for coffee, which are three major crops produced nationwide. We also observe that areas with higher distortions show higher land price dispersion and less active rental markets. The degree of land market distortions across areas co-variate to some extent with road accessibility, ethnicity, and education.

摘 要

农场规模和土地分配是发展中国家农业生产力滞后的重要因素。本文研究了土地市场不完善对农民土地分配和农业总生产率的影响。我们开发了一个理论框架来模拟农场的最佳规模分布，并评估市场缺陷在多大程度上可以解释非最佳土地分配和产出效率低下。我们使用农业普查微观数据来衡量危地马拉的这些扭曲。我们发现，由于土地市场的不完善，玉米和豆类的总产量比其有效水平低19%，咖啡比全国生产的三种主要作物咖啡低31%。我们还观察到，扭曲程度较高的地区显示出更高的土地价格分散性和不太活跃的租赁市场。各地区土地市场扭曲的程度在一定程度上与道路可达性、种族和教育程度不同。

7

Productivity, non-compliance and the minimum wage

生产力、违规和最低工资

Eliane Badaoui, Frank Walsh

Abstract

Many informal firms in developing countries would not be viable if they were to comply with the minimum wage law. This means the authorities have an incentive to turn a blind eye to non-enforcement in a substantial share of firms. We also survey enforcement mechanisms for the minimum wage across developing countries and find that worker complaints are an important element in determining whether firms will be inspected for non-compliance or not. We develop a theoretical monopsony model which rationalises the stylised facts we observe. For a given minimum wage, the government can choose a level of enforcement and penalties for non-compliance such that employment will not fall for any optimising firm, irrespective of their productivity. Low productivity firm’s optimal choice of employment and wage will be unaffected by the introduction of the minimum wage. High productivity firms comply so that wage and employment effects are non-negative for these firms.

摘 要

发展中国家的许多非正规公司如果遵守最低工资法，就无法生存。这意味着当局有动机对相当一部分公司的不执法行为视而不见。我们还调查了发展中国家最低工资的执行机制，发现工人投诉是确定企业是否会因不遵守规定而受到检查的重要因素。我们开发了一个理论垄断模型，该模型使我们观察到的风格化事实合理化。对于给定的最低工资，政府可以选择对违规行为的执法和处罚水平，以便任何优化公司的就业率都不会下降，无论其生产率如何。低生产率企业对就业和工资的最佳选择将不受最低工资的影响。高生产率企业遵守规定，因此工资和就业对这些公司的影响不会产生负面影响。

8

Hot Days, the ability to Work and climate resilience: Evidence from a representative sample of 42,152 Indian households

炎热的日子、工作能力和气候适应力：来自 42,152 个印度家庭的代表性样本的证据

Anthony Heyes, Soodeh Saberian

Abstract

The ability of people to work underpins most economic outcomes. Using data from the nationally representative India Human Development Survey (IHDS-II), with pre-scheduling of interview locations ensuring plausibly random assignment of temperature treatment to respondent, we evidence the impact of short-term (within-month) high temperatures on self-evaluated ability to work, and how that impact depends on individual living conditions. Other things equal a hot day (one in which maximum daytime temperature exceeds 37.7 °C (100°F)) increases inability to work across the month by about 7%, or 1/20th of a day. Electricity to the home and cooler ownership have important but partial protective effects, we find no such evidence for piped water supply.

摘 要

人们的工作能力是大多数经济成果的基础。使用来自具有全国代表性的印度人类发展调查（IHDS-II）的数据，预先安排采访地点，确保合理地随机分配温度处理给受访者，我们证明了短期（一个月内）高温对自我评估工作能力的影响，以及这种影响如何取决于个人生活条件。其他条件等于炎热的一天（其中最高白天温度超过37.7°C（100°F））使整个月无法工作的能力增加约7%，或一天的1/20。电力对家庭和冷却器所有权具有重要但部分的保护作用，我们没有发现这样的自来水供应证据。

9

Unpacking a multi-faceted program to build sustainable income for the very poor

展开一个多方面的计划，为非常贫困的人建立可持续的收入

Abhijit Banerjee, Dean Karlan, Robert Osei, Hannah Trachtman, Christopher Udry

Abstract

A multi-faceted program comprising a grant of productive assets, training, unconditional cash transfers, coaching, and savings has been found to build sustainable income for those in extreme poverty. We focus on two important questions: whether a mere grant of productive assets would generate similar impacts (it does not), and whether access to a savings account with a deposit collection service would generate similar impacts (it does, but they are short-lived).

摘 要

已经发现一个多方面的计划，包括授予生产性资产，培训，无条件现金转移支付，辅导和储蓄，为极端贫困人口建立可持续的收入。我们专注于两个重要问题：仅仅授予生产性资产是否会产生类似的影响（它不会），以及使用存款催收服务的储蓄账户是否会产生类似的影响（确实如此，但它们是短暂的）。

10

The role of food preferences in determining diet quality for Tanzanian consumers

食物偏好在决定坦桑尼亚消费者饮食质量中的作用

Ellen McCullough, Chen Zhen, Soye Shin, Meichen Lu, Joanne Arsenault

Abstract

Consumer preferences can be leveraged to magnify the impacts of agricultural investments and interventions on diets for all consumers in an economy, not just farmers. Using nationally representative panel data from Tanzania, we estimate demand for 19 food groups using an Exact Affine Stone Index censored demand system, which is flexible, utility-theoretic, controls for unobserved heterogeneity, and accounts for bias arising from endogenous prices. We find strong links between growth in household expenditures and improved diet quality. Also, staple grain prices are important determinants of nutrient intake. For poor consumers, e.g., protein and iron intake are more sensitive to maize price changes than to changing prices of other foods that contain more protein and iron. We use simulations to show that cash transfers and price vouchers targeting staple grains, pulses & nuts, and starchy staples could be effective in shrinking gaps between recommended and actual dietary intake for poor consumers.

摘 要

消费者偏好可以被用来扩大农业投资和干预措施对经济中所有消费者的饮食的影响，而不仅仅是农民。使用来自坦桑尼亚的具有全国代表性的小组数据，我们使用精确仿射石指数审查需求系统估计了19个食品组的需求，该系统灵活，效用理论，对未观察到的异质性的控制，并解释了由内生价格引起的偏见。我们发现家庭支出增长与饮食质量改善之间存在密切联系。此外，主粮价格是营养摄入的重要决定因素。例如，对于贫困消费者来说，蛋白质和铁的摄入量对玉米价格变化比对含有更多蛋白质和铁的其他食品价格的变化更敏感。我们使用模拟来表明，针对主食谷物，豆类和坚果以及淀粉类主食的现金转移和价格券可以有效地缩小贫困消费者推荐和实际饮食摄入量之间的差距。

11

Social protection amidst social upheaval: Examining the impact of a multi-faceted program for ultra-poor households in Yemen

社会动荡中的社会保护：研究多方面计划对也门超贫困家庭的影响

Lasse Brune, Dean Karlan, Sikandra Kurdi, Christopher Udry

Abstract

Social protection programs are needed more than ever during periods of social upheaval, but are also likely to be even harder to implement successfully. Furthermore, social upheaval makes measuring the impact of such policies all the more difficult. We study the impact of a multi-faceted social protection program, often referred to as a “Graduation” model program, in Yemen during a period of civil unrest. We are unable to measure outcomes for four years, thus much remains unknown about what transpired in the intermediary time. After four years we find positive impacts on savings behavior and asset accumulation, albeit substantially less than the amount the household originally received.

摘 要

12

The impact of cash transfers on Syrian refugees in Lebanon: Evidence from a multidimensional regression discontinuity design

现金转移对黎巴嫩叙利亚难民的影响：来自多维断点回归设计的证据

Nisreen Salti, Jad Chaaban, Wael Moussa, Alexandra Irani, ... Hala Ghattas

Abstract

This paper evaluates the impact of multipurpose cash assistance on refugee households, by relying on an original sampling design that allows tracing these impacts over multiple periods. Using two waves of household survey data collected in 2019 from economically vulnerable Syrian refugee households in Lebanon, we estimate the program impact of varying cash assistance durations including: discontinued recipients (received cash for 12 months then got discontinued in the next cash cycle), short-run cash recipients (12 months or less), long-run recipients (more than 12 months) and non-beneficiary eligible households. Using a sharp multidimensional regression discontinuity design, we find that most detected impacts materialize in the long-term cash group, indicating the importance of instituting longer-term cash cycles. Households in the long-run group had significantly higher levels of total household and food expenditures, higher access to residential housing and formal enrollment for children, and lower levels of child labor.

摘 要

本文通过依靠原始的抽样设计，评估了多用途现金援助对难民家庭的影响，该设计允许在多个时期内追踪这些影响。利用2019年从黎巴嫩经济脆弱的叙利亚难民家庭收集的两波家庭调查数据，我们估计了不同现金援助期限对计划的影响，包括：停止的受助人（收到现金12个月，然后在下一个现金周期中停止），短期现金接受者（12个月或更短），长期接受者（超过12个月）和非受益人合格家庭。使用尖锐的多维回归不连续性设计，我们发现大多数检测到的影响都发生在长期现金组中，这表明建立长期现金周期的重要性。长期家庭的家庭家庭总支出水平和食品支出明显较高，获得住房和儿童正规入学的机会更多，童工水平较低。

13

Trans-boundary air pollution spillovers: Physical transport and economic costs by distance

跨界空气污染溢出效应：按距离划分的物理运输和经济成本

Shihe Fu, V. Brian Viard, Peng Zhang

Abstract

The economic costs of trans-boundary pollution spillovers versus local effects is necessary to evaluate centralized versus decentralized environmental policies. Directly estimating these for air pollution is difficult because spillovers are high-frequency and vary with distance while economic outcomes are usually measured with low-frequency and local pollution is endogenous. We develop an approach to quantify local versus spillover effects as a flexible function of distance utilizing commonly-available pollution and weather data. To correct for the endogeneity of pollution, it uses a mixed two-stage least squares method that accommodates high-frequency (daily) pollution data and low-frequency (annual) outcome data and can improve efficiency. We estimate spillovers of particulate matter smaller than 10 μg (PM10) on manufacturing labor productivity in China. A one μg/m3 annual increase in PM10 locally reduces the average firm's annual output by CNY 45,809 (0.30%) while the same increase in a city 50 km away decreases it by CNY 16,248 (0.11%). This effect declines rapidly to CNY 2847 (0.02%) for an increase in a city 600 km away and then slowly to zero at 1000 km. The results suggest the need for supra-provincial environmental policies or Coasian prices quantified under the approach.

摘 要

跨界污染溢出与地方效应的经济成本对于评估集中式与分散式环境政策是必要的。直接估计空气污染的这些是困难的，因为溢出是高频的，并且随距离而变化，而经济结果通常以低频率来衡量，并且局部污染是内生的。我们开发了一种方法来量化局部与溢出效应，作为利用常用污染和天气数据的距离的灵活函数。为了纠正污染的内生性，它使用混合的两阶段最小二乘法，该方法容纳高频（每日）污染数据和低频（年度）结果数据，可以提高效率。我们估计颗粒物的溢出量小于10μg（PM10）关于中国制造业劳动生产率。一微克/米3PM的年增长10在当地，企业的平均年产值减少了45，809元人民币（0.30%），而50公里外的城市的年产量也减少了16，248元人民币（0.11%）。这种影响迅速下降到2847元人民币（0.02%），在600公里以外的城市增加，然后在1000公里处缓慢降至零。结果表明，需要超省级环境政策或根据该方法量化的Coasian价格。

14

When do refugees return home? Evidence from Syrian displacement in Mashreq

难民何时返回家园？来自叙利亚马什雷克流离失所的证据

Lori Beaman, Harun Onder, Stefanie Onder

Abstract

This paper provides an empirical analysis of refugee returns to Syria. Since 2011, about 5.6 million Syrians – more than a quarter of the country’s pre-conflict population – have been registered as refugees. By mid-2018, only about 1.8 percent of them had returned to Syria voluntarily. This paper compiles a novel data set with administrative data for 2 million refugees, existing and new household surveys, a new conflict-events database, and nightlights data for Syria to analyze the correlates of these returns. A reduction in conflict intensity and an increase in luminosity in Syria increase the likelihood of spontaneous return. Moreover, the patterns of who returns and when differ between high and low conflict areas of Syria. Finally, we show there is a positive association between better conditions faced by refugees in exile and the likelihood of return to Syria.

摘 要

15

Does terrorism make people pessimistic? Evidence from a natural experiment

恐怖主义会使人们悲观吗？来自自然实验的证据

Shiqi Guo, Jiafu An

Abstract

This paper uses a natural experiment to estimate the causal impact of low-casualty terrorist attacks on pessimistic beliefs in Africa. Distinct from fear, pessimism has been found to hinder optimal economic decisions and well-being. By comparing survey responses of people interviewed in the same area immediately before and after a terrorist attack, we find that terrorism increases pessimism about future living conditions by 11 percentage points. The effect is not driven by the direct damages of attacks or people's expectations of the national economy, and is stronger for attacks targeting religious figures and among respondents living in rural areas. Further analysis suggests that this effect tends to shift people to more accurate beliefs. Our results thus show that even low-casualty terrorist attacks have a substantial impact on people's beliefs.

摘 要

本文使用一个自然实验来估计低伤亡恐怖袭击对非洲悲观信念的因果影响。与恐惧不同的是，悲观情绪被发现会阻碍最佳的经济决策和福祉。通过比较恐怖袭击前后在同一地区接受采访的人的调查回复，我们发现恐怖主义使对未来生活条件的悲观情绪增加了11个百分点。这种影响不是由袭击的直接损害或人们对国民经济的期望造成的，对于针对宗教人士和生活在农村地区的受访者的攻击，这种影响更为强烈。进一步的分析表明，这种效应往往会使人们转向更准确的信念。因此，我们的研究结果表明，即使是伤亡率低的恐怖袭击也会对人们的信仰产生重大影响。

16

Import competition and vertical integration: Evidence from India

进口竞争与垂直整合：来自印度的证据

Joel Stiebale, Dev Vencappa

Abstract

Recent theoretical contributions provide conflicting predictions about the effects of product market competition on firms’ organizational choices. This paper uses a rich firm-product-level panel data set of Indian manufacturing firms to analyze the relationship between import competition and vertical integration. Exploiting exogenous variation from changes in India’s trade policy, we find that foreign competition, induced by falling output tariffs, increases backward vertical integration by domestic firms. The effects are concentrated among firms with high productivity and in industries with relatively low initial levels of competition. In contrast, falling input tariffs seem to have countervailing effects on vertical integration incentives. We also provide evidence that vertical integration is associated with lower marginal costs and increasing markups at the firm-product level.

摘 要

17

Refugee inflows, surplus farm labor, and crop marketization in rural Africa

非洲农村地区的难民流入、剩余农业劳动力和作物市场化

Shunsuke Tsuda

Abstract

This paper sheds light on the structure of factor and output market frictions to investigate long-term effects of refugee inflows on host farmers. Combining a canonical agricultural household model, the natural experimental setting of mass refugee inflows into Tanzania in the early 1990s, and longitudinal panel data from the host economy, I show that refugee inflows cause market-specific gains and losses. Refugee inflows tighten the off-farm labor market participation constraint, implying an increase in surplus farm labor and labor market inefficiency. On the other hand, I observe a positive impact on the transition from subsistence to crop marketization. This transition is revealed to be primarily due to a reduction in fixed transaction costs around refugee camps, not due to an increase in consumption demand by refugees. While the overall impact on agricultural labor productivity is negative, the “surplus farm labor effect” and the “crop marketization effect” act in opposite directions.

摘 要

本文阐明了要素和产出市场摩擦的结构，以调查难民流入对收容农民的长期影响。结合规范的农业家庭模型、1990年代初大规模难民流入坦桑尼亚的自然实验环境以及东道国经济的纵向面板数据，我表明难民流入会导致特定市场的收益和损失。难民流入收紧了非农业劳动力市场参与约束，这意味着剩余农业劳动力增加，劳动力市场效率低下。另一方面，我观察到对从自给自足到作物市场化的过渡产生了积极影响。据透露，这种转变主要是由于难民营周围固定交易成本的降低，而不是由于难民消费需求的增加。虽然对农业劳动生产率的总体影响是负面的，但“剩余农业劳动力效应”和“作物市场化效应”却是相反的。

18

Restricted access: How the internet can be used to promote reading and learning

限制访问：如何使用互联网促进阅读和学习

Laura Derksen, Catherine Michaud-Leclerc, Pedro C.L. Souza

Abstract

Can schools use the internet to promote reading and learning? We provided Wikipedia access to randomly-selected students in Malawian boarding secondary schools. Students used the online resource broadly and intensively, and found it trustworthy, including for information about news and safe sex. We find a 0.10σ impact on English exam scores, and a higher impact among low achievers (0.20σ). Students used Wikipedia to study Biology, and exam scores increased for low achievers (0.10σ). Our results show that by restricting internet access to a source of engaging and accessible reading material, it is possible to encourage independent reading and affect educational outcomes.

摘 要

学校可以利用互联网促进阅读和学习吗？我们为马拉维寄宿中学随机选择的学生提供了维基百科访问权限。学生们广泛而密集地使用在线资源，并发现它值得信赖，包括有关新闻和安全性行为的信息。我们找到一个0.10σ对英语考试成绩的影响，以及对低成就者的影响较高（0.20σ).学生使用维基百科学习生物学，成绩差的学生的考试成绩提高（0.14σ).我们的研究结果表明，通过将互联网访问限制在引人入胜且易于访问的阅读材料的来源，可以鼓励独立阅读并影响教育成果。

19

Winners and losers from agrarian reform: Evidence from Danish land inequality 1682–1895

土地改革的赢家和输家：来自丹麦土地不平等的证据1682-1895

Nina Boberg-Fazlić, Markus Lampe, Pablo Martinelli Lasheras, Paul Sharp

Abstract

Pro-market and pro-farmer agrarian reforms enacted in eighteenth century Denmark laid the basis for rural development but we demonstrate that they also resulted in increased inequality. We investigate this using a novel parish-level database spanning more than two centuries. We identify the impact of land quality on inequality following the reforms by instrumenting with soil type and find increases in areas with more productive land. We propose and find evidence for a mechanism whereby agrarian reforms allowed areas with better soil quality to realize greater productivity gains. This in turn led to greater population increases, and a larger share of smallholders and landless laborers. Finally, we demonstrate the impact on the winners and losers: more unequal areas witnessed increases in top incomes, but greater emigration of the rural poor, to the United States in particular. Thus, the losers were able to vote with their feet, in stark contrast to those who might lose from similar reforms in developing countries today.

摘 要

十八世纪丹麦实施的亲市场和亲农民的土地改革为农村发展奠定了基础，但我们证明，这些改革也导致了不平等的加剧。我们使用一个跨越两个多世纪的新型教区级数据库对此进行了调查。我们通过对土壤类型进行检测，确定了土地质量对改革后不平等的影响，并发现在土地产量更高的地区有所增加。我们提出并找到证据，建立一种机制，通过这种机制，土地改革使土壤质量较好的地区能够实现更大的生产力提高。这反过来又导致人口增加，小农和无地劳工的比例增加。最后，我们展示了对赢家和输家的影响：在更加不平等的地区，最高收入增加，但农村穷人移民人数增加，特别是移民到美国。因此，失败者能够用脚投票，这与今天发展中国家可能因类似改革而失败的人形成鲜明对比。

20

Financial access and women's role in household decisions: Empirical evidence from India's National Rural Livelihoods project

财政机会和妇女在家庭决策中的作用：来自印度国家农村生计项目的经验证据

Anjini Kochar, Closepet Nagabhushana, Ritwik Sarkar, Rohan Shah, Geeta Singh

Abstract

Government programs supporting self help groups (SHGs) generally target women on the assumption that doing so enhances women's decision-making. The empirical evidence, however, is mixed. We advance and test one explanation: the loan amounts offered by most SHGs may be too small to impact women. Our analysis is based on SHGs developed under India's National Rural Livelihoods Mission, a program that supported both small loans from internal savings and larger loans through Community Investment Funds (CIFs). Exploiting variation in their phasing and amount, we document a large effect of CIFs on women's decision-making and on intra-household allocations.

摘 要

支持自助团体的政府方案通常以妇女为对象，假定这样做可以加强妇女的决策。然而，经验证据好坏参半。我们提出并测试了一种解释：大多数SHG提供的贷款金额可能太小而无法影响女性。我们的分析基于印度国家农村生计使命下制定的SHG，该计划支持内部储蓄的小额贷款和通过社区投资基金（CIF）提供的大额贷款。利用CIF的阶段和数量差异，我们记录了CIF对妇女决策和家庭内部分配的巨大影响。

21

Can virtual replace in-person coaching? Experimental evidence on teacher professional development and student learning

虚拟能取代面对面的辅导吗？教师专业发展和学生学习的实验证据

Jacobus Cilliers, Brahm Fleisch, Janeli Kotze, Nompumelelo Mohohlwane, ... Tsegofatso Thulare

Abstract

Virtual communication holds the promise of enabling low-cost professional development at scale, but the benefits of in-person interaction might be difficult to replicate. We report on an experiment in South Africa comparing on-site with virtual coaching of public primary school teachers. After three years, on-site coaching improved students’ English oral language and reading proficiency (0.31 and 0.13 SD, respectively). Virtual coaching had a smaller impact on English oral language proficiency (0.12 SD), no impact on English reading proficiency, and an unintended negative effect on home language literacy. The top-performing students consistently benefited most. Classroom observations show that on-site coaching improved teaching practices, while virtual coaching led to larger crowding-out of home language teaching time. Implementation and survey data suggest technology itself was not a barrier to implementation, but rather that in-person contact enabled more accountability and support.

摘 要

虚拟通信有望大规模实现低成本的专业发展，但面对面互动的好处可能难以复制。我们报道了南非的一项实验，该实验将现场辅导与公立小学教师的虚拟辅导进行了比较。三年后，现场辅导提高了学生的英语口语和阅读能力（分别为0.31和0.13 SD）。虚拟辅导对英语口语能力的影响较小（0.12 SD），对英语阅读能力没有影响，对母语素养有意想不到的负面影响。表现最好的学生一直受益最多。课堂观察表明，现场辅导改善了教学实践，而虚拟辅导导致家庭语言教学时间的挤出更大。实施和调查数据表明，技术本身并不是实施的障碍，而是面对面的接触使更多的问责制和支持成为可能。

                                                                                             编辑：黄小洪

                                                                                             审核：李文清

资料来源于期刊网址，仅供学术交流使用，不得用于商业用途！来源：

Journal of Development Economics | Vol 155, March 2022 | ScienceDirect.com by Elsevier

“致力于学术分享与学术传播，助推学术中国梦！”

关注发公众号，追踪最新研究成果

Bilibili账号更新教学课程、经验分享、学术会议         

 Bilibili账号 

bili_8462582243